Prime Minister Ozawa?

In an article I wrote for the Philippine Online Chronicles around three months ago, I said that the biggest challenge that would confront the then newly-installed Prime Minister Naoto Kan would be a potential comeback by Ichiro Ozawa, the erstwhile shadow shogun whom Kan at that time humiliated and stripped of influence within the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). At that time, I predicted that Ozawa would field one of his puppets to challenge Kan in the DPJ presidential elections this Sept. 14. I was wrong. Ozawa would pull a comeback, alright; but he is not appointing a puppet to run in the elections. He himself would challenge the Prime Minister.

The king-maker has decided to be the king himself.

This is so far biggest political surprise of this particularly turbulent year. Everybody knew that Ozawa would one day seek the position, but it was almost a consensus that he would not do so just yet simply because his popularity is at its lowest point right now. Opinion polls point out that around 63 to 78 percent of the public are opposed to Ozawa becoming Japan’s leader. Within the DPJ, the percentage is even higher: 80 percent of the 300,000 party members favor Kan over Ozawa. A Prime Minister Ozawa, therefore, would be a prime minister devoid of the people’s mandate.

So why did Ozawa, arguably the most savvy Japanese politician in recent history, decide to throw his hat to the ring at the least auspicious time? This is something that only Ozawa and perhaps people close to him could tell. But we can get a clue by understanding the context in which Ozawa, Kan and others are operating: an intriguing internal power struggle for control of the DPJ which in turn is an integral part of the on-going shadow battle for Japan’s political soul, something that should interest not just Japan observers but also all students of history and politics everywhere.

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China’s credible challenge.

Just as China was protesting the draping of the Philippine flag on the coffin of Rolando Mendoza, the cop-turned-terrorist who murdered eight Hong Kong nationals in Manila last Monday, its submarines were returning home from a successful mission to plant a Chinese flag beneath the South China Sea. It was the latest act of renewed Chinese assertiveness in the disputed region and a demonstration of China’s underwater capabilities.

Of course, the flag-planting doesn’t give the Chinese what they don’t already have with regards to their claims to the South China Sea. It’s not the first time in recent years that China demonstrated unilateral assertiveness either. But the stunt was significant because it was a rebuke to the United States, which has recently weighed in on the dispute.

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Uninformed comments.

One thing that sucks in a democracy, especially in one where there is seperation of powers, is that politicians tend to grandstand by recklessly making uninformed comments. This is exactly what two Filipino senators did last week in the aftermath of the hostage-taking crisis in Manila that claimed the lives of eight Hong Kong natonals.

The day after the massacre, Senate President Juan Ponce-Enrile, a man also known for his xenophobic rudeness, said: “Why should we apologize? These things can happen anywhere in the world.”

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Manila Mayhem Aftermath: How the Philippines is addressing its blunders.

Referring to the tsunami of condemnations that hit his organization’s handling of the Manila hostage crisis, Philippine National Police (PNP) spokesperson Agrimero Cruz yesterday made this irritating remark: “They (critics) are all in the gallery, watching. They should try being in the line of fire and let us see how they react.”

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