China’s credible challenge.

Just as China was protesting the draping of the Philippine flag on the coffin of Rolando Mendoza, the cop-turned-terrorist who murdered eight Hong Kong nationals in Manila last Monday, its submarines were returning home from a successful mission to plant a Chinese flag beneath the South China Sea. It was the latest act of renewed Chinese assertiveness in the disputed region and a demonstration of China’s underwater capabilities.

Of course, the flag-planting doesn’t give the Chinese what they don’t already have with regards to their claims to the South China Sea. It’s not the first time in recent years that China demonstrated unilateral assertiveness either. But the stunt was significant because it was a rebuke to the United States, which has recently weighed in on the dispute.

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The Big Mac: Revisiting MacArthur and his showdown with Truman.

An act of contempt against civilian authority.

This was how most observers described the scornful comments made by the commander of the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, and members of his staff against high officials of the Obama administration. To give you an idea how scornful the remarks were, they described National Security Adviser Jim Jones as “a clown.”

And if you consider the fact that it was already Strike Three for McChrystal (Strike One was when he forced the hand of the president by leaking his recommendations of increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan to the press while Strike Two was when he criticized Vice President Biden’s opposition to the surge in a speech in London), you just have to wonder if General Douglas MacArthur has in fact returned.

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Thoughts on Hatoyama’s resignation.

“Do you know how many Japanese prime ministers I dealt with when I was in office? Seven! Would you believe that?” – Bill Clinton.

Indeed, Japan sees prime ministers come and go as often as Madonna has sex. Last Wednesday, after only eight months in office, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation, citing his failure to fulfill his campaign promise of moving the American military base in Futenma out of Okinawa. He’s the fifth prime minister to resign in four years.

So what do I make of this significant yet seemingly random event in Japanese politics?

I have always said that what’s going on in Japan right now is, to some extent, similar to the situation in Thailand: a battle between the Establishment and the forces of change. While in Thailand the battle between the Royalists and the Bangkok elite on one hand and the rural poor on the other is bloody and has far-reaching societal implications, in Japan the people aren’t even aware of the battle. To be sure, it has less dramatic implications; but nonetheless it is a battle that could, for the first time since the Meiji restoration, cause a tectonic shift in the nation’s political alignment.

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Korean crisis: Tough balancing acts.

So, both Washington and Seoul are convinced that based on overwhelming evidence a North Korean torpedo is responsible for the sinking of South Korean ship Cheonan. This has to be the toughest challenge yet to maintaining the pale imitation of stability in Northeast Asia.

The sinking of the said ship, which killed fourty-six South Korean sailors, was a serious act of agression that violated not just the Armistice but the United Nations Charter as well. Indeed, it should have been taken by South Korea as an act of war that required full military retaliation. The painful reality for Seoul, however, is that military option is a luxury it can ill afford. President Lee Myung-bak knows this, which is why his response to the crisis was very prudent: He did not immediately put the blame on the North but instead called for a level-headed investigation of the sinking, and when the investigation conclusively pointed to the North as the culprit, he ruled out military option and called for a cautious response.

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Obama snub.

Perhaps the oddest thing that happened in the Nuclear Security Summit is President Barack Obama’s snub of Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s request for a one-on-one meeting on the sidelines. This snub became glaring when Obama sent to meet Hatoyama not Vice President Biden, not Secretary Clinton nor Secretary Gates but the Secretary of Freaking Energy– third to the last in the US Order of Precedence!

The acting president of Nigeria and the foreign minister of Egypt made it to the President’s appointments schedule, but not the Prime Minister of Japan? Makes you wonder if you heard it right when the Obama administration said just months ago that the US-Japan alliance is the most important alliance of the world, bar none. Has the annoyance of Obama over Hatoyama’s stubborn insistence on re-negotiating the transfer of Futenma Air Base really reached this point already?

And why the fuck would the world endorse Noynoy Aquino?

As a student of politics, I’m aware that the battle for public perception is vital in gaining and maintaining power. This is especially true in the Philippines, where politics is personality- instead of issue-driven. That’s why people like Bubby Dacer and Reli German are indispensable to politicians especially during elections; these spin doctors are tasked with conceptualizing and presenting the best possible packaging of their candidate, as well as capitalizing on every development that could be spun to further enhance the said packaging. And this is exactly what I believe Noynoy Aquino’s handlers are doing on his being featured on the cover of the Asian edition of Time magazine.

First an obviously pro-Aquino newspaper carries the Time feature on its front page. Then the candidate himself reveals that some officials from the European Union, China and, most especially, the United States have been “exchanging notes” with him. While nobody from the Noynoy camp claims that their candidate is being endorsed by the international community (of course they wouldn’t, lest diplomats from EU, the US and China and the editors of Time come up with a denial), it appears to me that Noynoy being the preferred choice of the international community and, most especially, the US is the subtle message Noynoy’s handlers are trying to send.

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Some smart moves from Seguis.

I don’t know much about the current chair of the re-constructed Philippine government negotiating panel in the Mindanao “peace process,” Amb. Rafael Seguis. But his latest actions seem to be right on track.

On VeraFiles.com, veteran journalist-blogger Ellen Tordessillias reported last week that Seguis has, during his courtesy call on the Malaysian foreign minister, requested the removal of Othman Abd Razak as facilitator on the grounds that he was biased to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

According to Tordessillias’ “highly-placed” sources, it was Othman who advised the MILF to demand 95-5 percent sharing of the resources of the proposed Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) during the negotiations that resulted to the drafting of an unconstitutional Memorandum of Agreement that, had it not been stopped by the Philippine Supreme Court, could have created a de-facto state for the MILF within the Philippine state.

In the MOA, the government and the MILF settled for a 75-25 sharing agreement, which was still unfair. I have said on this blog that such an agreement would mean that the MILF could utilize a lion share of the area’s resources to fund its armed secessionist campaign.

Also, Seguis requested that the Philippine government be allowed to shoulder the accommodation expenses of the Philippine panel in Kuala Lumpur so that Manila could have a say on logistical matters like the Filipino panel’s lodging. There have been allegations that the rooms the Philippine panel occupied were bugged by the Malaysians, enabling the MILF to learn of the government’s strategy.

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KIM JONG-IL LAUNCHES HIS ROCKET…

… and the biggest gainer seems to be Taro Aso.  

[Updated, April 6] 

For the nth time, global attention is on North Korea as it defiantly carried out just a while ago a rocket launch seen by many in the region as provocative.

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North Korean rockets and Taro Aso.

 Japan’s warning to North Korea over its planned missile launch reveals the willingness and the ability of Tokyo to flex some of its military muscles amidst its supposed “lack of a standing military forces.” Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamuro said Japan could shoot down the rockets.

“Legally speaking, if this object falls toward Japan, we can shoot it down for safety reasons,” he asserted.

Yesterday, North Korea revealed coordinates forming two zones where parts of the multiple-stage rocket would fall, unveiling its plan to fire the projectile over Japan toward the Pacific Ocean sometime between April 4 and 8. One of the “danger” zones where the rocket’s first stage is expected to fall is in waters less than 75 miles from Japan’s northwestern shore.

Normally, countries planning to do a rocket launch do spell out these information, but it was the first time for North Korea to do so. Analyst believe that the reason behind this is because North Korea wants to use brinkmanship again to force the United States back to the negotiations while at the same time minimizing criticisms from the international community.

But the criticisms did come. Ban Ki-Moon, the United Nations Secretary-General, condemned the plan, saying that the missile launch would “threaten the peace and stability in the region.” The United States State Department, meanwhile, said the attack was “provocative.”

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Rough sailing indeed.

Last December, I speculated that 2009 would be a tough year for the Six-Party Talks on the North Korean Nuclear Crisis. It seems that I was right.

Last year, Pyongyang embarked on its usual saber-rattling rethoric after Japan decided to halt its fuel aid to the hermit country for its “failure to resolve” the issue of North Korean abductions of Japanese nationals. The North Koreans insisted that the issue has been resolved, claiming that the Japanese abductees are already dead. Japan refutes this, saying Pyongyang has consistently failed to present conclusive pieces of evidence that will prove the death of the abductees.

And yesterday, an ex-spy from North Korea who had defected to and is now living in South Korea, Kim Hyon Hui, met with the family of Yaeko Taguchi, one of the Japanese abductees, in Busan. Kim told Taguchi’s relatives that the abductee is still alive.

 “I have no doubt your mother is still alive,” Kim, who is believed to have learned Japanese from Taguchi, told them in Japanese.

This is contrary to Pyongyans’s claim that Taguchi had died in an accident in July 1986.

I have no idea how Kim was able to know that Taguchi is still alive, but her statement nevertheless complicates the resolution of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis because of two implications:

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