Rough sailing ahead for the six-way talks?

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Looks like 2009 would be a tough year for the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear crisis.

A Japanese newspaper has reported that a senior North Korean diplomat has stated that Pyongyang would halt the process of dismantling its nuclear facilities unless Japan “implements heavy fuel assistance” to the hermit regime.

It can be remembered that right after the appointment of conservative Taro Aso as Japan’s prime minister this year, Tokyo announced that it will no longer extend fuel aid to North Korea unless progress is made on the abductions issue. In turn, North Korea has accused Japan of not fullfilling its end of the bargain, claiming that fuel aid has already been agreed upon in the negotiations.

The abductions issue has been a very thorny problem in the six-way talks. Domestically, there is public outrage in Japan over Pyongyang’s kidnapping of thirteen Japanese civilians during the Cold War and its refusal to provide conclusive evidence proving the abductees’ death or to investigate the abduction cases. But in the international community, Japan’s insistence of making the abduction cases an issue in the six-party talks have been met by disdain; many feel that the problem is should be a bilateral issue between Tokyo and Pyongyang and should not complicate the resolution of the nuclear stand-off, which has greater relevance to regional stability.

The way Pyongyang is acting seems like it desperately needs Japan’s fuel aid. But even with pressure from the other parties to the six-way talks, it is doubtful that Tokyo would reverse its stance. The government of Taro Aso is politically unstable, and his Liberal Democratic Party is struggling to gather its support base in preparation for a possible snap parliamentary elections or the Septmeber general elections. Aso’s popularity, which the ruling party has been relying on to defend its turf against the emerging resilient opposition, has been diminishing fast. Changing his hawkish stance on the abduction issue would surely piss off the families of the abductees and, more importantly, the conservatives that form a significant part of his support base. And this would be a political blow Aso cannot afford.

Unless a reallignment in the domestic power structure in Japan occurs, or another nation steps in to give Kim Jong-il his fuel, we can expect a deadlock in this area of the negotiations.

To make matter worst, the United States itself, which just a couple of months ago removed Pyongyang off its anti-terror list, is getting frustrated with the way the North continues to refuse verifying the accuracy of information it disclosed about its nuclear program. This refusal proves that the North Koreans are hell-bent on just prolonging the crisis so it could get more concessions. 

Are we seeing a situation that could lead to the collapse of the talks? We don’t know yet. But we know that contrary to what the Bush administration had assured us, the resolution of the North Korean nuclear crisis is far from over.

Lameduck charter for the ASEAN.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

A couple of days ago, foreign ministers of the of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gave birth to the ASEAN Charter in Jakarta. First proposed by the Philippines in 1989, the Charter conveys upon the Association juridical status.

Among others, this juridical status would enable the ASEAN to accede to protocols and conventions as well as to gain observer status in multi-lateral organizations like the United Nations. It gives us a new holiday: August 8 would now be observed as ASEAN Day. It also gives our president another chance to pay political debts, because from now on the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta will accredit permanent representatives- or ambassador- from members and other countries that wish to be accredited to the bloc.

Praise releases from the ASEAN and its members’ foreign ministries say that the birth of this charter means that the ASEAN is no longer a mere talking shop. Really?

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Why was there no Mike in Manny’s fight?

Tuesday, December 9, 2008

First Gentleman Mike Arroyo had never missed Manny Pacquiao’s fights before. In fact, his attendance in those fights had been a source of criticism for its extravagance. But in the epic De La Hoya-Pacquiao “dream match” earlier this week, the President’s husband was conspicously absent. What could be the reason?

You see, when Mrs. Arroyo was on the way to Peru through Los Angeles for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, Mike suddenly decided to come back to the Philippines through Osaka. The official reason for this is because the President’s husband suffered from diarrhea.

I don’t know about the presidential plane, but all planes I’ve been on had toilets. So it’s hard for me to understand why the First Gentleman had to be rushed to an Osaka hospital and from there be fetched by a private jet back to Manila simply because he had loose bowel movements.

A while ago, my professor shared to our class a rumor that’s been spreading in the media and in the blogosphere lately that explains why Mike cancelled his trip to Peru and didn’t show up in Las Vegas for Manny’s fight. The word is that in the middle of the 12-hour flight from Manila to Los Angeles, the presidential delegation was informed that someone among them would be picked up by US authorities upon landing in LA for money-laundering activities. Evidence were supposedly unearthed by federal authorities “in the wake of Lehmann Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG and so many other Wall Street corpses.” Allegedly, this freaked the First Couple out and so it was decided that Mike should come back to Manila.

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