Wow. This is so cool. It’s a soap opera for intellectuals!

hmmm…Nicely spun, but let me pull at a couple of threads:

(1) If John Negroponte made a “discreet” visit to Manila in the last week or so, it may be easier explained by the fact that President Bush was watching basketball in Beijing after island-hopping over the Philippines and this was his way of saying, “Sorry, got to stop off in Thailand first, where they like the Free Trade Agreement with the US. If Ambassador Kristie Kenney met the President in Beijing, I’m sure that doesn’t lead to the conclusion that this “only proves the fact that the United States’s involvement and stake on the Bangsamoro issue is deeper than we all thought.”

(2) It is also true that the US “has troop concentrations in Japan and Korea but not in ASEAN”. I know! Look what wonders it seems to have done them, eh? Japan and South Korea lead Asia in standard of living, economic progress and even Apple IPhones.

(3) “a military base would give the Americans the springboard they need to intensify their campaign against the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), which is believed to be based in Indonesia.”

Yet in the last two years Indonesia has seriously degraded the JI. It is still of concern to the US and all of us, of course, but are you seriously suggesting that the US is plotting to dismember its oldest ally in Asia, its only, if orphaned child, setup Bangsamorostan–a simulacrum of Waziristan-cum-Tehran in Mindanao, whilst establishing a military base and make a client state of it, from which to springboard attacks on what? and where? somewhere in Indonesia?

On top of that, it would serve to “surround the Chinese”. Now the plot really thickens. The Bje turns out to be the lynchpin of American geopolitical strategy in Asia!

I don’t Nutbox, seems to me there would be a much simpler explanation (I invoke Occam’s Razor for this preferred scenario).

I think the Arroyo administration was offended that Pres. Bush did not return her visit earlier this year, ignoring the wishful invitation, and sending the affable enough and avuncular John Negroponte as consuelo de bobo.

But now, I do agree with you and mr. Arcilla that we ought to de-internationalise the matter, especially by excising Malaysia, the OIC and the United States institutes of Peace, which is the quasi governmental agency of the US Congress that has its claws on the neuronal pathways of Jess Dureza and the Peaceniks who’ve produced nothing but endless war and stalemate. May i suggest that DISARMAMENT by the MILF be made a necessary condition to any peace negotiation in such an internalized situation.

Nice Read, nutbox.

more importantly, jj, YOU WERE ON TV?!

DJB Rizalist,

On your first point, well how do you explain Ambassador Kenney’s meetings with MILF leaders prior to this whole brouhaha? Visiting rebels is a no-no for an ambassador to do. Had Kenney met the Dalai Lama, she would have been kicked out by the Chinese. The role of the US Institute of Peace, which, as you said, is a quasi-governmental org, in disseminating information about the “Moros” and the ancestral domain alone raises my eyebrows as to the real intentions of the United States. And this suspicion was furthermore aided by Eid Kabalu’s statement saying his group’s open to negotiations with the Americans re- establishing military bases in MILF teritorries.

On your second point, well yeah those countries are rich but I don’t think the reason for their wealth is the presence of US troops there.

On your third point, frankly I don’t rule out the possibility of the US trying to dismember an ally to advance its interest. The springboard to Indonesia MIGHT not be worth the Philippines’ dismemberment yes, but what about the energy resources of Mindanao? The Americans are realists. Alliances for them are not permanent.

And if Ambassador Negroponte was sent to make up for Bush’s failure to visit Manila, then why did the US of A not make his visit known to the press?

And yes, I agree. Disarmament by the MILF should be a precondition for talks. I have said that many times here and on FV.

For me, the ARMM has removed any moral reason for the MILF to continue their armed struggle. For me, the MILF are mere bandits who should be brought to justice.

Barny: yes. kasi I’m cute daw. LOL.

j, i got all the US nvolvement perspective of this BJE in your blog , w/c i’m seriously considering as a major side of this issue. i think many of your thoughts about it are valid and justified. i just think that economic reasons are not so significant why US would involve itself. if we look at it, if BJE will be formed, it will just be comprised of small populace relative to most nations/territories, w/c means a very small market for US products. Its economic benefits to US is very insignificant, second oil and gas… hmmm for one both Sulu sea and liguashan marsh are yet to produce significant prospective that indeed there is economically significant reserves there, until now most of reserves in the two areas are estimates only by scientists/geologists but no actual proven reserves are found even after years of exploration. this means the reserves in those areas are really small that it can’t even be discovered unlike important oil/gas reserves in Middle east or Malaysia w/c were easily discovered. So I think to say that economic demands is a big factor why US involve itself… I guess I won’t buy it .

in terms of geoplotics, i think yes it is highly probable that mindanao/BJE could be strategic for US security efforts especially with terrorism in this region. but sorry i don’t think with China, it’s already obvious that Jpan, s. Korea and Taiwan are the strategic defense position of US… but still I’m not convinced that this are the reasons why US would involve itself in Moro issue. this are a bit far off coz US could actually have a based in Indoneisa or East Timor or even Bruneis instead if it’s only about terrorism, right?. There is really a deeper issue/reason that we should look for coz US doesn’t act just to get insignificant benefits but rather to get grand and big compensations.

well, DBJRizalist, i don’t thinl S. Korea and Japan boomed bcoz of US bases, it doesn’t make any sense, we used to have US bases for decades but lokk at us.

I just think that it is really stupid why our current govt is making concessions to MILF in this way, I mean these are ridiculous. it just shows that our leadership is very weak. Does MILF really symbolizes or even reflects Filipino Muslims sentiments, I don’t think so!

Big questions are why does the govt of Arroyo pushing for this? is it for CHaCHa? is it for their personal benefits? is bcoz of US pressure? is it bcoz Moros has long been mrginalized?,, we may never know the answer, we may never know the truth, but WE CAN DO SOMETHING!

* i subscribe to disarm MILF before any agreements.

Here’s my reply to your comment, Kaku:

On Economics. Well, I didn’t say something about the BJE being a potential market for the United States. But that’s idea I obviously overlooked.

But I don’t really know where you got your conclusion that the amount of energy reserves in the area covered by the BJE is too small it won’t be discovered even after years of exploration. Or your information saying that no oil has been found even after years of exploration.

What I know is that just recently, Angelo Reyes, Arroyo’s energy secretary, announced that the 120-million oil field off Palawan that’s operated by Galoc Production Co. has started its operations July this year and is expected to produce 30,000 barrels of oil per day, or 10 per cent of the local oil demand.

ExxonMobil, too, has been allowed by the government to explore Sulu Sea for oil and other energy sources. Now I don’t think the members of ExxonMobil’s BOD will invest billions of dollars to explore a place if they are uncertain of the probability of finding what they want to find there, right?

So you see, the possibility of the US wanting to control energy resource there isn’t far-fetched.

On Geopolitics. The US can’t build a base in Indonesia. If Jakarta allows them to do so, it will incur the wrath of the nationalists there, which could be used by the rising Islamic fundamentalist political parties to seize power. Brueni is too far from Indonesia. Timor Leste, on the other hand, is too far from the heart of the ASEAN (and the sea lanes between Borneo, Sulawesi and Mindanao which is pestered not just by the arms smugglers for JI but by pirates as well). Mindanao, therefore, remains the optimum location for a US springboard to the teritorries where the JI operates.

And you can’t rule out the need for a US base in Mindanao to encircle China just because the US has troop concentrations in Japan and Korea. You should remember that the US is actually currently in the process of withdrawing 7,000 of its Marines from Okinawa to Guam, and Guam is just too far from the major China flashpoint, which is Taiwan. Secondly, although the US has troops in Northeast Asia, we should also remember that two major China flashpoints- the Spratlys and the Paracels- are located in the ASEAN region. And the US don’t have troop concentration in the ASEAN.

For some reasons, I’m not surprised with your comment, Kaku. You’ve always been skeptical of my analyses Remember when I told you some months back over bottles of Red Horse that Arroyo is poised to grant the MILF a region with a Commonwealth status? You said then that it’s impossible, but look at the BJE MOA now.

But of course, I don’t claim that my analysis of US involvement is 100 per cent accurate. If anything, it’s just a guess. An educated guess, that is. But knowing the Americans, I can say that THEY REALLY ARE INVOLVED.

And you are right, the MILF don’t even represent the aspirations of the Filipino Muslims in the South. Proof of that is the high voter turn-out in the recent ARMM elections. If I’ll have my way, I’ll demand that the MILF pledge allegiance to the flag and lay down their arms first before talking with them.

hey shoot you j, I have not been always skeptical of your analyses. I actually agree to most of them..kalbo ka talaga! and yeah i know about the small Galoc oil field and the exploration being done by Exxon Mobil, but what I am trying to say is that these are very small reserves compared to major world reserves that the oil/gas hungry US would give last attention to in search of oil. and oil exploration in the Philippines has been happening for decades now and only two small reserves have been found out, the Malampaya gas field and Galoc oil field. and all oil companies really explore for gas/oil, I mean that’s part of there business, that’s why almost all the waters of the Philippines not just Sulu sea are being explored by dozen of multinational companies, it’s a “hopefully” exploration just like the gold rush in many countries. given these fact, I really feel it’s really won’t justify US engagement in MIndanao.

wooohh, did you really say it when we’re in magz, I thought you said commonwealth of Southeast Asia..heheh. well, I guess I really didn’t believe it that time, but you know what you just prove taht you’re an expert of Mindanao issues… including the Sabah and Marcos blah blah issue..heheh.

bsta, it’s not really okay to push this BJE. j, be vigilant about this because I only get to see healthy discussion of this issue in your blog as far as I’m conern. okay.

Well I don’t think the Malampaya gas field and the Galoc oil field are small, Kakumoto-san.

But, well, come to think of it, I didn’t know that there were major oil companies who have been exploring the Philippine seas for years now. I guess I’ll take your word for it. But see, the fact that there are multinational companies exploring these islands’ seas proves that there’s a high possibility that there’s oil here.

And if the multinational companies are enticed, I bet the US gov would be, too. I mean, well, Bush, Cheney, Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, the neocons and the Carlyle group. These people’s worlds revolve around oil!

By the way, check out Manolo Quezon’s blog. He nuanced Malaysia’s benefits should a BJE client state be established. Not only will it solve the Sabah problem, it would also strengthen Malaysia claim on Spratlys and even lead to Malaysia’s emergence as a regional power/dominant Muslim country vis a vis Indonesia in this part of the world.

The BJE issue is a hot issue even among the Lyceum students/ faculty. As far as I’m concerned, it’s dead in the water. But maybe I’m wrong. So you’re right, we all should be vigilant.

And silly you I’m not an expert on Mindanao issues LOL.

before I read the comments…Is kaku13 and kakuGuwapo:) the same? hahaha!! can you check on this Jj? lol!

Hi J.
Im ur student.
hahahahaha..

Hello Sophia.

It’s “I’m your student,” not “Im ur student”

And don’t forget about the assignment I gave you. I’ll check that next week

Kuya Gelo: yes, they are the same.

Sorry Kaku, I think I missed your point re: energy. You were trying to say that the oil/gas reserves in the Minsupala area are not very big relative to other oil/gas reserves in the world. Yes, I agree. Indeed, there are potential bigger gas/oil reserves in Africa (hence, China’s busy there) and- if my memory serves me right- in the Caucasus.

But still I don’t think the reserves in Minsupala are negligible. I think they still are lucrative as far as the Americans are concerned. And besides, for great powers, I think, influence is gained one country at a time.

(Not to mention that, aside from energy source, Minsupala is very attractive for mining industries.)

I don’t remember my assignment.
hahahaha.. joke~
I have many time!!!
I will do my assignment next time.

Hi J,

Re: “Retired generals and flag officers, along with the righ-wing elements in the military, are fuming mad about this deal. And they are not showing it, which is very dangerous.”

I honestly don’t think they are dangerous.

They are regularly briefed as a matter of courtesy by fellow generals who may still be serving in some official capacity but truth is they don’t have real or material power to do other than quietly say what they think. They are gone, i.e., has beens.

They no longer have the material influence to change things. To prove my point, not even the 3 former military officers who sit in the Senate hold sway in military matters or affairs today.

Well that makes sense, Ana. But I always thought maybe they still hold influence.

But at any rate, I believe there are many active officers out there who are disturbed about the MOA to say the least.

you certainly make a very strong argument. keep up with the job. something bothers me about your treatment on u.s. involvement. i observed how far the manila embassy has been intensely involved in meetings and working sessions with milf since 2003-2004. while they have all been kept rather quiet, talk about hegemonic and geopolitical alliance building seems to me to be very far fetched. further, since the time of erap, in the u.n. emergency assistance, humanitarian response so-so equation, the role of key responsible party falls upon the australians in our sphere of the globe. the artificially induced conflict in mindanao and the scare theories of a us-milf alliance are the product of a paranoid school of thought. the u.s. may have specific agenda, indeed. they want someone to talk to aside from the gangs inside malacanang and in the cabinet wormholes that are full of shit to the brim. is that not what anyone would want to do under the circumstances? malaysia and indonesia, are by far, among the most corrupt and broken societies in the world. the degree of the graft and corruption, the level of success of narco-politics in those parts are astounding. on the other hand, the threat of china as you keep saying, is real. and the u.s. recognizes that. most of all because, it happens to be in the very same league with taliban, the russian mafia and other key narco driven states. perhaps you chould churn that.

nap santos,

The idea of the US attempting to build an alliance with the MILF is a product of paranoia only if the US has a better geopolitical record.

But you see, the circumstances, as well as the past actions of the Americans, point to a higher degree of US involvement in the Bangsamoro question. That is a fact. Now, why are they involved, not if, is the question this blog post tries to answer.

The Australians (and the Japanese) have been doing a lot of job as an IMT member, I believe, because the US couldn’t do so in an official capacity.

This is because the Malaysians have consistently rejected US involvement in the IMT, again for geopolitical reasons (Malaysia has designs in Bangsamoro that might be blocked by US involvement).

I don’t know why you mentioned the Indonesians. They are not involved Although they could have been the best choice for third party mediator because they are traditionally friendly to the Philippines compared with Malaysia and because they have secessionist problems themselves.

Now, you are saying that the US want to talk to someone other than the corrupt GRP. Now, who are that someone? The MILF? Well, yeah, Kenney had been meeting with Murad even before the MOA was exposed. But I don’t think their talks was for peace. I think it was to advance US interests.

But at any rate, I believe the United States’ efforts to discreetly build an alliance with the MILF has been nipped in the bud. They would now deny it to high heavens for it would make them look very bad. For the BJE is dead in the water now.

Just FYI, not Kenney but the several and various ambassadors before her have been meeting Salamat and not Murad.

FYI, too, Murad is or at least was, government agent. I wonder what his status is now.

Salamat, his own uncle, was the true revolutionary, visionary whatever.

They used to argue a lot over policy or principle, whatever. Salamat says, MI should be a mobile base group. Murad would say, No! Uncle, we should be a fixed base army! We build camps, we build HQs. Salamat fumed.

There was a time when Salamat’s niece came to me, crying. That was before the talks in 2003. She said, uncle might be dead or dying. I asked her Why?

She said, there seemed to be an encounter.

Apparently, Salamat was shot in the stomach, or something. The news died down or was never placed in the papers. Then there was the letter to US Pres. Bush.

And the meetings began. In fairness to Mdm. Kenney, she merely inherited all these. I saw how frantic the US wanted to get into it with MI. At the time, I merely shrugged it all off. But Kenney has a good record for pacifying coup elements, as she did in her past assignment in Latin America.

When the oust gloria idiots started making hay out of the peace talks, it gets into my gut. It’s a simple resurgence of EDSA II. And now that is going way back the peace talks. But that’s just the real boner there. People want to step into the shoes of that small lady in Pasig, but are stupid enough not to use a viable argument. So they use the peace talks and all that scary shit about a war, a severance of the country and what manure of an idea they could conjure. As I said to warriorlawyer, suddenly, just suddenly, a lot of people have come out from the wormpit sounding eloquent! wow! and they’re having such a ball! well, i say, good luck to them, at least it keeps them busy before they get shot or stabbed or mortared for stepping on the wrong toes and making the wrong wars… this time…

(did you know panfilo lacson’s visa was revoked? i hope its true. i wonder who would follow and say, hmph! i don’t need a u.s. trip at all! there’s a recession there anyways… hahahahahahahahahaha!!!)

and also, you know it’s hard to get serious about these things. some people have turned into morons and crazies just contemplating their take on the present mix up in mindanao, what with so many intellectuals sprouting left and right. may i invite you to view ms. allevi’s views on how mindanao and the genitals of the sultan of sulu / north borneo were ransomed by a simple shitty sheet of paper — bearer a somesuch soldier major dwight or white on behalf of gen. bates at her wordpress blog. oy vey!!! lol!

Nap Santos,

You seem to know A LOT about the MILF. But I’m not sure that Murad is indeed a government agent.

Can you tell me which ambassadors met with Salamt before Kenney? Haven’t heard of them. But still, in my book, any ambassador who meets a leader of a rebel group, in a rebel camp, must be declared persona non grata. That applies to the American envoy.

True, Kenney merely inherited all these. And I have nothing against her track record in Latin America, which is her expertise. But this post isn’t about Kenne’ys involvement. It’s about the US’s involvement.

Right-wing radicals like Herman Tiu Laurel have been, since 2003, and even non-rightists journalists like Tony Abaya, have been pointing to this kind of US involvement in Mindanao as part of the Project for New American Century of the neo-cons. Now that sounds like paranoia. And I’m nopt sure if that theory stands. But as far as I see it now, in the Bangsamoro question, the US is really playing with fire. And they are, AS ALWAYS, ready to thread dangerous waters just to advance their interests.

The Oust Gloria crowd is irrelevant and beside to the point. Just because power-hungry oppossionists think aloud about the p[ossibility of US involvement (btw, my posts about US involvement came BEFORE the media and the politicians talked about it) doesn’t mean the possibility don’t stand.

And oh, I didn’t get the link to that blog you were saying.

riccardione and charge d’affaires mussomeli and the legat according to blogger jamid khalil murshid (jkmurshid). and the link is http://alleviator.wordpress.com/2008/08/28/grp-milf-peace-talks-and-the-genitals-of-kiram-and-quezon.

murad was definitely a government agent, he was the counterfoil to boy salamat and mohaqer iqbal. but now? we don’t really know who he’s working for.

oh, and herman is a true blue rightist. that’s why he fit into the christian democratic mold that in germany is called fascist. tony abaya is more than a rightist. he is part of the ayala alabang mafia.

Nap, so even though Kenney isn’t the first diplomat to meet Murad in an MILF camp, it doesn’t affect the point I’m trying to make because these diplomats you mentioned represents the US.

I’m still pessimistic on your claim that Murad i a government agent though. I’ll have to confirm it.

Yeah, HT Laurel is a right-winger. But I don’t know what you mean with Abaya being part of an Ayala Alabang Mafia. Cheers.

you live in a dreamworld…just about all of your post is imagination, with no facts to support any of it…the big bad americans are to blame for all of the philippines ills!!!

LOL

tha facts are there. you are just blind.